L’impact de l’instabilité politique sur la volatilité de l’inflation dans les pays en développement
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.59051/joaf.v7i1.49Résumé
Dans ce papier, nous analysons les effets de l’instabilité politique sur La volatilité d’inflation dans les pays en développement. A cette fin, nous examinons en premier lieu le caractère multidimensionnel de l'instabilité politique dans les pays en développement en utilisant 26 indicateurs de l’instabilité politique dans une analyse en composantes principales (ACP). Nous sommes arrivés à détecter quatre dimensions d’instabilité politique, à savoir : le niveau de la démocratie, la violence et la protestation à motivation politique, les effets des pays voisins, et l’instabilité au niveau du gouvernement.
En deuxième lieu, Nous examinons l’impact de l’instabilité politique à travers ces quatre dimensions sur les niveaux d’inflation à l’aide d’une méthode de panel dynamique (GMM). Nous avons constaté que seule les dimensions, l’instabilité du régime politique et le niveau de protestation et violence politique ont un effet significatif et positif sur les niveaux d’inflation dans les pays en développement.
Téléchargements
Les données relatives au téléchargement ne sont pas encore disponibles.
Références
Acemoglu, Daron, Simon J, James R, and Yunyong T (2002). « Institutional causes, Macoeconomic symptoms: Volatility, Cr ises and Growth”. NBER working Paper N° 9124, September.
Ades, A. and H. B. Chua (1997). “The neighbor’s curse: Regional instability and economic growth.” Journal of Economic Growth 2, 279-304.
Ake, Claude (1975). ”A Definition of Political Stability”, Comparative Politics, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 271-283.
Alesina, A, and Perotti, R.(1996). Income Distribution, political instability, and investment. European Economic Review 40, 1203-1228.
Alesina, A., Ozler, S., Roubini, N, and Swagel, P. (1996). Political instability and Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1, 189-211
ALESINA, A. and SUMMERS, L. H. (1993). Central bank independence and macroeconomic performance: Some comparative evidence. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 25: 151-62.
Ari Aisen and Francisco José Veiga (2008) “Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? Apanal Data Analysis. Public Choice (2008) 135 : 207-223.
Annett, A (2000). Social fractionalization, political instability, and the size of government. IMF Working Paper WP00=82.
Arellano, Manuel, and Olympia Bover (1995). “Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimationof Error-component Models” Journal of Econometrics 68, 29-51.
Arellano, Manuel, and Stepahn Bond (1991). “Somme Tests of Specication for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidnce and an Application to Employment Equations” The Rview of Economic Studies.
Aron, J. (2000). Growth and institutions: a review of the evidence. The World Bank Research Observer, 15, 99 – 135.
Asien,A, Vejia, F.(2013). How does political instability affect economic growth? European journam of Political Economy 29(2013) 151-187.
Bai Jushan and NG Serena (2002). “Determining the Number of factors in approximate factor models” Econometrica Vol 70 N° 1 (Jannuary, 2002) 191-221.
Barro, R. J. and Lee, J (1994). Sources of economic growth. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy.
Barro, R. J. (1991, May). Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Coutries. The Quarterly Journal of Economic, PP. 407-443.
Benhabib, J. and Spiegel, M. (1997). Growth and investment across countries: are primitivesall that matter. New York University and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco,mimeo.
BOWDLER, C. and MALIK, A. (2005). Openness and Inflation Volatility: Cross-Country Evidence. Economics Papers 2005-W14 Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
Brock Blomberg, S. (1996). Growth, political instability and the defence burden, Economica, 63: 649-72.
Brunetti, A. (1997), Politics and Economic Growth . Paris: Development Centre of OECD.
Blundell, Richard, and Stephen Bond (1998). “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panl Data Models” Journal of Econometrics 87, 115-134.
Butkiewicz, J. L and Yanikkaya, H (2005). The impact of sociopolitical instability on Economic growth: Analysis and implications. Journal of Policy Modeling, 27, 629-645.
Campos, N, F and Nugent, J, B. (1999). Who is afraid of political instability. University of Southern California, mimeo.
Campos, N, F and Nugent, J.B. (2002). Who is Afraid of political instability? Journal ofDevelopment Economics, 67, 157-172.
Carmignani, F (2000). Political bias in fiscal policy formation: an econometric analysis of coalition systems. Universita` degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca,Working PaperNo. 28.
Carmignani, F (2001). Theory and evidence on the political economy of growth, Universita degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca Working Paper 31.
Carmignani, F (2003). New evidence on the politics and economics of multiparty cabinets duration. Forthcoming in Scottish Journal of Political Economy.
Chen, B. and Feng, Y. (1996). Some political determinants of economic growth.
Dani Rodrik (1989). Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries, NBER Working Paper No. 2999 Issued in June 1989.
CUKIERMAN, A., EDWARDS, A. and TABELLINI, G. (1992). Seigniorage and political instability. American Economic Review, 82: 537-555.
Darby, J., Li, C. and Muscatelli, V(2004). Political uncertainty, public expenditure and growth. European Journal of Political Economy. 20, 153–79 (2004).
De Haan, J.( 2007). Political institutions and economic growth reconsidered. Public Choice 127, 281–292
Devereux M. and J-F. Wen (1998) Political instability, capital taxation and growth,European Economic Review, 42, 1635-51.
Easterly, W. and Rebelo, S. (1993). Fiscal policy and economic growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 417 – 458.
Edwards, Sebastian, and Guido Tabellini (1991). “ Explaining Fiscal Policy and inflation in developing Country” Journal of International Money and Finance 10, S16-S48.
Feng, Y. (2003). Democracy, Government, and Economic Performance: Theory and Evidence. The Mit Press.
Fosu, A. K. (2001). Political instability and Economic Growth in developing Economies: Some specification Empirics. Economic Letters, 70, 289-294.
Fosu, A. K. (1992). Political instability and economic growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic Development and cultural change, 40(4), 829-841.
Florence Barugahara (2015) “The Impact of Political Instability on Inflation Volatility in Africa” South African Journal of Economics Vol. 83:1 March 2015
Ghate, C., Le, Q. and Zak, P. (2003). Optimal fiscal policy in an economy facing sociopolitical instability. Review of Development Economics 7, 583–598.
Gupta, Dipak K. (1990): The Economics of Political Violence, Praeger, New York;
Hibbs, D.(1973). Mass Political Violence: a Cross National Causal Analysis. Wiley, New York. European Journal of Political Economy 12, 609–627.
Hair, J, Anderson, R. Tatham, W (1998). Black, Multivariate Data Analysis, 5th edn. (Prentice Hall International, London.
Jong-a-Pin, R. (2009). On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth. European Journal of Political Economy 25, 15–29.
Keefer, P. and Knack, S. (1995), Institutions and economic performance: cross-country tests using alternative institutional measures.Economics and Politics , 7, 207 – 227.
KHAN, S. U. and SAQIB, O. F. (2011). Political instability and inflation in Pakistan. Journal of Asian Economics, 22: 540-549.
KONTONIKAS, A. (2004). Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the United Kingdom, evidence from GARCH modelling. Economic Modelling, 21: 525-543.
Lambertini, L. (1998). Are budget deficits used strategically? UCLA, mimeo.
Lipset, S.M. (1959). Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political legitimacy. The American political Science review, 53(1), 69-105.
Londregan, J. B., and Poole, K. T. (1990). Poverty, The Coup Trap, and the Seizure of Executive Power. World politics, 42(2), 151-183.
Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption and growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 681 –712.
Mbaku, J. M. (1988). Political instability and economic Development in sub-sahan Africa: Some recent Evidence. The Review of Black Political Economy, 89-111.
Miljkovic, Dragan and Arbindra Rimal.(2008). “The Impact of Socio-Economic Factors on Political Instability: A Cross-Country Analysis”. The Journal of Socio-Economics 2008: 2454-2463.
Morrison, D.G and Stevenson, H.M. (1971). Political instability in independent Black Africa: More dimensions of conflict Behaviour within Nations. Journal of conflict Resolution, 15(3), 347-368.ight Latin American Countries 1946-1983” Vancouver, B.C Fraser Institue.
Paldam, Martin (1987) “inflation and political instability in E
Perotti, R. and Alesina,A (1996). Income distribution, political instability, and investment. NBER , Working paper N°4486.
Phelps, Edmund (Inflation in the Théory of Public Finance” Swedish Journal of Economics 75, 67-82.
Petterson, P. (1999). An empirical investigation of the strategic use of debt. IIES,mimeo.
Psacharopoulos, G., (1994). Returns to investment in education: a global update. World Development 22, 1325–1343.
ROTHER, P. C. (2004). Fiscal Policy and Inflation Volatility. Working Paper Series 317, European Central Bank.
Rummel, R., (1966). Dimensions of conflict behavior within nations, 1946–59. Journal of Conflict Resolution 10, 65–73.
Sala-i-Martin, X. (1997). I just run four million regressions. NBER Working Paper No. 4186.
Sanders, David. (1981). Patterns of Political Instability. New York : St Martin’s Press.
Seyed Morteza Khani Hoolari and Abbas Ali Abounoori and Teymour Mohammadi (2014) “The E_ect of Governance and Political Instability Determinants on Ination in
Iran” Munich Personal RePEc Archive (2014).
Stock, J. H. and Watson, M. W. (2002). Forecasting Using Principal Components from a Large Number of Predictors, Journal of the American Statistical Association.
Svensson, J. (1998). Investment, property rights, political instability: theory and evidence. European Economic Review, 42, 1317 – 1341.
Treier, S and Jackman, S. (2008). Democracy as a Latent Variable, American Journal of Political Science, Volume 52, Issue 1, pages 201–217, January.
Venieris, Y. P., and Gupta, D. K. (1986). Income Distribution and Sociopolitical instability as determinants of saving: A Cross- Sectional Model. Journal of Political Economy, 94(4),
Wansbeek, T. and Meijer, E., (2000). Measurement Error and Latent Variables in Econometrics. North Holland, Amsterdam
Ades, A. and H. B. Chua (1997). “The neighbor’s curse: Regional instability and economic growth.” Journal of Economic Growth 2, 279-304.
Ake, Claude (1975). ”A Definition of Political Stability”, Comparative Politics, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 271-283.
Alesina, A, and Perotti, R.(1996). Income Distribution, political instability, and investment. European Economic Review 40, 1203-1228.
Alesina, A., Ozler, S., Roubini, N, and Swagel, P. (1996). Political instability and Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1, 189-211
ALESINA, A. and SUMMERS, L. H. (1993). Central bank independence and macroeconomic performance: Some comparative evidence. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 25: 151-62.
Ari Aisen and Francisco José Veiga (2008) “Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? Apanal Data Analysis. Public Choice (2008) 135 : 207-223.
Annett, A (2000). Social fractionalization, political instability, and the size of government. IMF Working Paper WP00=82.
Arellano, Manuel, and Olympia Bover (1995). “Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimationof Error-component Models” Journal of Econometrics 68, 29-51.
Arellano, Manuel, and Stepahn Bond (1991). “Somme Tests of Specication for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidnce and an Application to Employment Equations” The Rview of Economic Studies.
Aron, J. (2000). Growth and institutions: a review of the evidence. The World Bank Research Observer, 15, 99 – 135.
Asien,A, Vejia, F.(2013). How does political instability affect economic growth? European journam of Political Economy 29(2013) 151-187.
Bai Jushan and NG Serena (2002). “Determining the Number of factors in approximate factor models” Econometrica Vol 70 N° 1 (Jannuary, 2002) 191-221.
Barro, R. J. and Lee, J (1994). Sources of economic growth. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy.
Barro, R. J. (1991, May). Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Coutries. The Quarterly Journal of Economic, PP. 407-443.
Benhabib, J. and Spiegel, M. (1997). Growth and investment across countries: are primitivesall that matter. New York University and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco,mimeo.
BOWDLER, C. and MALIK, A. (2005). Openness and Inflation Volatility: Cross-Country Evidence. Economics Papers 2005-W14 Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
Brock Blomberg, S. (1996). Growth, political instability and the defence burden, Economica, 63: 649-72.
Brunetti, A. (1997), Politics and Economic Growth . Paris: Development Centre of OECD.
Blundell, Richard, and Stephen Bond (1998). “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panl Data Models” Journal of Econometrics 87, 115-134.
Butkiewicz, J. L and Yanikkaya, H (2005). The impact of sociopolitical instability on Economic growth: Analysis and implications. Journal of Policy Modeling, 27, 629-645.
Campos, N, F and Nugent, J, B. (1999). Who is afraid of political instability. University of Southern California, mimeo.
Campos, N, F and Nugent, J.B. (2002). Who is Afraid of political instability? Journal ofDevelopment Economics, 67, 157-172.
Carmignani, F (2000). Political bias in fiscal policy formation: an econometric analysis of coalition systems. Universita` degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca,Working PaperNo. 28.
Carmignani, F (2001). Theory and evidence on the political economy of growth, Universita degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca Working Paper 31.
Carmignani, F (2003). New evidence on the politics and economics of multiparty cabinets duration. Forthcoming in Scottish Journal of Political Economy.
Chen, B. and Feng, Y. (1996). Some political determinants of economic growth.
Dani Rodrik (1989). Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries, NBER Working Paper No. 2999 Issued in June 1989.
CUKIERMAN, A., EDWARDS, A. and TABELLINI, G. (1992). Seigniorage and political instability. American Economic Review, 82: 537-555.
Darby, J., Li, C. and Muscatelli, V(2004). Political uncertainty, public expenditure and growth. European Journal of Political Economy. 20, 153–79 (2004).
De Haan, J.( 2007). Political institutions and economic growth reconsidered. Public Choice 127, 281–292
Devereux M. and J-F. Wen (1998) Political instability, capital taxation and growth,European Economic Review, 42, 1635-51.
Easterly, W. and Rebelo, S. (1993). Fiscal policy and economic growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 417 – 458.
Edwards, Sebastian, and Guido Tabellini (1991). “ Explaining Fiscal Policy and inflation in developing Country” Journal of International Money and Finance 10, S16-S48.
Feng, Y. (2003). Democracy, Government, and Economic Performance: Theory and Evidence. The Mit Press.
Fosu, A. K. (2001). Political instability and Economic Growth in developing Economies: Some specification Empirics. Economic Letters, 70, 289-294.
Fosu, A. K. (1992). Political instability and economic growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic Development and cultural change, 40(4), 829-841.
Florence Barugahara (2015) “The Impact of Political Instability on Inflation Volatility in Africa” South African Journal of Economics Vol. 83:1 March 2015
Ghate, C., Le, Q. and Zak, P. (2003). Optimal fiscal policy in an economy facing sociopolitical instability. Review of Development Economics 7, 583–598.
Gupta, Dipak K. (1990): The Economics of Political Violence, Praeger, New York;
Hibbs, D.(1973). Mass Political Violence: a Cross National Causal Analysis. Wiley, New York. European Journal of Political Economy 12, 609–627.
Hair, J, Anderson, R. Tatham, W (1998). Black, Multivariate Data Analysis, 5th edn. (Prentice Hall International, London.
Jong-a-Pin, R. (2009). On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth. European Journal of Political Economy 25, 15–29.
Keefer, P. and Knack, S. (1995), Institutions and economic performance: cross-country tests using alternative institutional measures.Economics and Politics , 7, 207 – 227.
KHAN, S. U. and SAQIB, O. F. (2011). Political instability and inflation in Pakistan. Journal of Asian Economics, 22: 540-549.
KONTONIKAS, A. (2004). Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the United Kingdom, evidence from GARCH modelling. Economic Modelling, 21: 525-543.
Lambertini, L. (1998). Are budget deficits used strategically? UCLA, mimeo.
Lipset, S.M. (1959). Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political legitimacy. The American political Science review, 53(1), 69-105.
Londregan, J. B., and Poole, K. T. (1990). Poverty, The Coup Trap, and the Seizure of Executive Power. World politics, 42(2), 151-183.
Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption and growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 681 –712.
Mbaku, J. M. (1988). Political instability and economic Development in sub-sahan Africa: Some recent Evidence. The Review of Black Political Economy, 89-111.
Miljkovic, Dragan and Arbindra Rimal.(2008). “The Impact of Socio-Economic Factors on Political Instability: A Cross-Country Analysis”. The Journal of Socio-Economics 2008: 2454-2463.
Morrison, D.G and Stevenson, H.M. (1971). Political instability in independent Black Africa: More dimensions of conflict Behaviour within Nations. Journal of conflict Resolution, 15(3), 347-368.ight Latin American Countries 1946-1983” Vancouver, B.C Fraser Institue.
Paldam, Martin (1987) “inflation and political instability in E
Perotti, R. and Alesina,A (1996). Income distribution, political instability, and investment. NBER , Working paper N°4486.
Phelps, Edmund (Inflation in the Théory of Public Finance” Swedish Journal of Economics 75, 67-82.
Petterson, P. (1999). An empirical investigation of the strategic use of debt. IIES,mimeo.
Psacharopoulos, G., (1994). Returns to investment in education: a global update. World Development 22, 1325–1343.
ROTHER, P. C. (2004). Fiscal Policy and Inflation Volatility. Working Paper Series 317, European Central Bank.
Rummel, R., (1966). Dimensions of conflict behavior within nations, 1946–59. Journal of Conflict Resolution 10, 65–73.
Sala-i-Martin, X. (1997). I just run four million regressions. NBER Working Paper No. 4186.
Sanders, David. (1981). Patterns of Political Instability. New York : St Martin’s Press.
Seyed Morteza Khani Hoolari and Abbas Ali Abounoori and Teymour Mohammadi (2014) “The E_ect of Governance and Political Instability Determinants on Ination in
Iran” Munich Personal RePEc Archive (2014).
Stock, J. H. and Watson, M. W. (2002). Forecasting Using Principal Components from a Large Number of Predictors, Journal of the American Statistical Association.
Svensson, J. (1998). Investment, property rights, political instability: theory and evidence. European Economic Review, 42, 1317 – 1341.
Treier, S and Jackman, S. (2008). Democracy as a Latent Variable, American Journal of Political Science, Volume 52, Issue 1, pages 201–217, January.
Venieris, Y. P., and Gupta, D. K. (1986). Income Distribution and Sociopolitical instability as determinants of saving: A Cross- Sectional Model. Journal of Political Economy, 94(4),
Wansbeek, T. and Meijer, E., (2000). Measurement Error and Latent Variables in Econometrics. North Holland, Amsterdam
Téléchargements
Publié-e
2016-06-29
Comment citer
MARZOUGUI, M. (2016). L’impact de l’instabilité politique sur la volatilité de l’inflation dans les pays en développement. Journal of Academic Finance, 7(1). https://doi.org/10.59051/joaf.v7i1.49
Numéro
Rubrique
Articles
Licence
(c) Tous droits réservés Mounir MARZOUGUI 2016
Cette œuvre est sous licence Creative Commons Attribution - Pas d'Utilisation Commerciale - Pas de Modification 4.0 International.
Les auteurs qui publient dans cette revue acceptent les termes suivants :
- Les auteurs conservent le droit d'auteur et accordent à la revue le droit de première publication, l'ouvrage étant alors disponible simultanément, sous la licence Licence d’attribution Creative Commons permettant à d'autres de partager l'ouvrage tout en en reconnaissant la paternité et la publication initiale dans cette revue.
- Les auteurs peuvent conclure des ententes contractuelles additionnelles et séparées pour la diffusion non exclusive de la version imprimée de l'ouvrage par la revue (par ex., le dépôt institutionnel ou la publication dans un livre), accompagné d'une mention reconnaissant sa publication initiale dans cette revue.
- Les auteurs ont le droit et sont encouragés à publier leur ouvrage en ligne (par ex., dans un dépôt institutionnel ou sur le site Web d'une institution) avant et pendant le processus de soumission, car cela peut mener à des échanges fructueux ainsi qu'à un nombre plus important, plus rapidement, de références à l’ouvrage publié (Voir The Effect of Open Access).
