Macro Economic Determinants of Economic Growth In South Africa
A Cointegration Evidence
Keywords:
: South Africa, economic growth, capital stock, financial development, employment, inflation, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL).Abstract
Purpose: To investigate the determinants of economic growth in South Africa amidst ongoing macroeconomic challenges.
Method: Utilized yearly time series data. Assessed data stationarity using the Phillips-Perron and Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests. Employed an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze short- and long-run relationships. Applied Granger causality to explore causal relationships among the variables.
Results: In the long run, financial development, capital stock, and employment are significant determinants of economic growth. In the short run, all variables examined were significant.
Originality/Relevance: The study addresses critical macroeconomic challenges in South Africa, providing insights that can inform policies aimed at stimulating economic growth through employment, investment in capital, and financial development.
Downloads
References
Ain, N., Sabir, S. & Asghar, N. (2020), Financial inclusion and economic growth: Empirical evidence from selected developing economies. Review of Economics and Development Studies, 6(1), 179-203.
Aksakal, B.S. (2019), World Bank and Keynesian economics. Business and Economics Research Journal, 10(1), 77-94.
Alharthi, M. & Hanif, I. (2020), Impact of blue economy factors on economic growth in the SAARC countries. Maritime Business Review, 5(3), 253-269.
Anon, 2022. Building Jobs and Prosperity in Developing Countries. Available online: https://www.oecd.org/derec/unitedkingdom/40700982.pdf (accessed on 11 Mar 2024).
Attari, M.I.J. & Javed, A.Y. (2013), Inflation, economic growth, and government expenditure of Pakistan: 1980-2010. Procedia Economics and Finance, 5, 58-67.
Batrancea, L.M., Balcı, M.A., Akgüller, Ö. & Gaban, L. (2022), What Drives Economic Growth across European Countries? A Multimodal Approach. Mathematics 2022, 10(9), 3660. https://doi.org/10.3390/math10193660
Boianovsky, M. (2018), Beyond capital fundamentalism: Harrod, Domar and the history of development economics. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 42(2), 477-504.
Chibuzor, C. & Eleh, E. (2023), The Impact of Capital Formation on Economic Growth in Nigeria. Middle European Scientific Bulletin, 11, 25-40
Comin, D. & Mulani, S. (2006), A Theory of Growth and Ideas. Journal of Economic Growth, 11(1), 39-60.
Đidelija, I., (2020), Analysis of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature on the Relationship between Savings and Economic Growth. Knowledge-International Journal, 40(1),71-77.
Djamal, D., Fariou, C. & Brahim, L. (2023), Effect of Human Capital on Economic Growth in South Africa: an ARDL Approach. Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 7(4), 1-13.
Eichengreen, B. (2020), Keynesian economics: can it return if it never died? Review of Keynesian Economics, 8(1), 23-35.
El Abed, R. & Zardoub, A. (2019), Exploring the nexus between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns in Germany: An ARDL Co-integration approach. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2(2), 10-25.
Fazzari, S.M. (2020), Was Keynesian economics ever dead? If so, has it been resurrected? Review of Keynesian Economics, 8(1), 46-60.
Fournier, J. (2020), 5 Ways to address the skills shortage in your industry. Canada: HCMworks.
Gebru, T. (2015), The determinants of economic growth in Ethiopia: A time series analysis. (Master Thesis) Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Hahn, F.H. (2019), The Microeconomic Foundations of Macroeconomics 25-40. Routledge. Taylor & Francis group
Hlapi, A. Stiglingh-Van Wyk, A. & David, O.O (2023), Analysing Factors that Influence Economic Growth in South Africa. Acta Universtatis Danubius CEconomica 3, 200-216.
Hobongwana, K.G., Kapingura, F.M.& Kosi, P. M. (2023), The Impact of Domestic Investment on Economic Growth in South Africa: A Sectoral Approach. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 15(2), 278-309.
International Labour Organization (ILO). (2020), What is Skill Mismatch, and Should We Care? Geneva: ILO.
Iqbal, M.A., Nadim, N. & Akbar, Z. (2022), Determinants of Recent Inflation in Pakistan and its Relation with Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis. Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 10(1), 345-353.
Jedidia, K.B., Boujelbene, T. & Helali, K. (2014), Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from Tunisia. Journal of Policy Modelling, 36(5), 883-898.
Joao, C.A. (2021), Determinants of economic growth in Sub-saharan Africa 1990-2021, Heilbronn University, Mcom Dissertation: Heilbronn.
Kaitila, V. (2016), GDP growth in Russia: Different capital stock series and the terms of trade. Post-Communist Economies, 28 (2), 129-145.
Kummitha, H.R. & Kummitha, R.K.R., (2021), Sustainable entrepreneurship training: A study of motivational factors. The International Journal of Management Education, 19(1), 100449.
Mabugu, T., & Inglesi-Lotz, R. (2022), The effect of mismatched supply and demand of electricity on economic growth in South Africa. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 17(1).
Makaringe, S.C. & Khobai, H. (2018), The effect of unemployment on economic growth in South Africa (1994-2016). MPRA Paper,2-13.
Malebo, U. (2020), Evaluating the Impact of Economic Sanctions on South Africa: A Synthetic Control Approach (Master's Thesis) University of Cape Town.
Manzoor, F., Wei, L., Asif, M., Haq, M.Z.U. & Rehman, H.U. (2019), The contribution of sustainable tourism to economic growth and employment in Pakistan. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(19). 37-85.
Meyer, D.F. & Sanusi, K.A. (2019), A causality analysis of the relationships between gross fixed capital formation, economic growth and employment in South Africa. Studia Universitatis Babes-Bolyai Oeconomica, 64(1), 33-44.
National Treasury. (2019), Economic Transformation, Inclusive Growth, and Competitiveness. Cape Town: South Africa National Treasury.
Nguyen, Q. K. (2023), Macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in low- and mid-income countries: new evidence using a non-parametric approach. Applied Economics Letters, 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2023.2283774
Nkoro, E. & Uko, A.K. (2016), Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 5 (4), 63-91.
Olowofeso, E.O., Adeleke, A.O. & Udoji, A.O. (2015), Impact of private sector credit on economic growth in Nigeria. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 6(2), 81-101
Palley, T., (2019), Unemployment and growth: Putting unemployment into Post Keynesian growth theory. Review of Political Economy, 31(2), 194-215.
Paratama, D.P. (2023a), Analysis of the Determinants of Economic Growth in G20 Countries 2012-2021. Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics, 6(3), 290-311.
Paratama, D.P. (2023b), Analysis of the determinants of economic growth in G20 countries 2012-2021. Indonesian Journal of Development Economics 6(3) 290-311.
Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R.J., (2001), Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
Pham, H. & Nguyen, P. (2020), Empirical research on the impact of credit on economic growth in Vietnam. Management Science Letters, 10(12), 2897-2904.
Stats SA (Statistics South Africa), (2018), The Economy Shrinks by 0,7% in Q2. Pretoria: Government Printers.
Stats SA (Statistics South Africa). (2020), Economy Slips into Recession. Pretoria: Government Printers.
Stats SA (Statistics South Africa), (2020), Youth Still Find It Difficult to Secure Jobs in South Africa. Pretoria: Government Printers.
Stats SA (Statistics South Africa), (2023), Economic growth. Pretoria: Government Printers.
Tarasov, V.E. & Tarasova, V.V. (2019), Harrod–Domar growth model with memory and distributed lag. Axioms, 8(1). 9-20
Tendengu, S., Kapingura, F.M. & Tsegaye, A. (2022), Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in South Africa Economies 2022, 10, 204. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10090204
Tien, N.H. (2021), Relationship between inflation and economic growth in Vietnam. Turkish Journal of Computer and Mathematics Education (TURCOMAT), 12(14), 5134-5139.
Van Den Berg, H. (2018), Extending the Harrod-Domar Model. American Review of Political Economy, 13(1), 11-30.
Wahedi, A.U., Zeng, Y. & Arbetman-Rabinowitz, M. (2022), South Africa’s old hand at a new pandemic: politics dictates the quality of response. Canadian Foreign Policy Journal, 28(1), 79-97.
Yousaf, Z. (2020), Dynamic Linkages between Poverty, Inequality, Crime, and Social Expenditures in a Panel of 16 Countries. New York City: Springer Open.
Ziaja, S. (2020), More donors, more democracy. The Journal of Politics, 82(2), 433-447.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Dorah Dubihlela, Phakama Senzangakhona, Nomsindisi Dudumashe

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).