Déterminants macroéconomiques de la croissance économique en Afrique du Sud
une preuve par cointégration
Mots-clés :
: South Africa, economic growth, capital stock, financial development, employment, inflation, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL).Résumé
Objectif : Cette étude a pour objectif d’étudier les déterminants de la croissance économique en Afrique du Sud dans un contexte de défis macroéconomiques actuels.
Méthode : Lors de l'analyse des données des séries chronologiques annuelles, la stationnarité a été évaluée à l'aide des tests de Phillips-Perron et de Dickey-Fuller augmenté, et les relations entre les variables ont été explorées à l'aide d'un modèle de décalage distribué autorégressif (ARDL), avec la causalité de Granger utilisée pour étudier les relations causales entre les variables.
Résultats : À long terme, le développement financier, le stock de capital et l’emploi sont des déterminants importants de la croissance économique. À court terme, toutes les variables examinées étaient significatives.
Originalité/Pertinence : L'étude aborde les défis macroéconomiques critiques en Afrique du Sud, fournissant des informations qui peuvent éclairer les politiques visant à stimuler la croissance économique par l'emploi, l'investissement en capital et le développement financier.
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